Widening 4-bet ranges with AQ and mid pocket pairs

December 28, 2009

Assume 100BB stacks, 3betsize is to 10BB and we do not count the dead money we put in for initial raise.

Let x be optimal 3bet% for 4betting wider

Opponent will stack off with JJ+/AK (top 3%)

1) 55-TT (33% equity against JJ+/AK)
In a 200BB pot, 67BB belongs to us.
On average, we lose 33BB [100-67=33]
(100-3/x)*10BB – (3/x)*33BB = 0
x=12.9%

2) AQs or 44 (32% equity against JJ+/AK)
In a 200BB pot, 64BB belongs to us.
On average, we lose 36BB [100-64=36]
(100-3/x)*10BB – (3/x)*36BB = 0
x=13.8%

3) AQo (28% equity against JJ+/AK)
In a 200BB pot, 56BB belongs to us.
On average, we lose 44BB [100-56=44]
(100-3/x)*10BB – (3/x)*44BB = 0
x=15.2%

Opponent will stack off with QQ+/AK (top 2.5%)

1) 55-TT (36% equity against QQ+/AK)
In a 200BB pot, 72BB belongs to us.
On average, we lose 28BB [100-72=28]
(100-3/x)*10BB – (3/x)*28 = 0
x=11.4%

2) AQs (28.5% equity against QQ+/AK)
In a 200BB pot, 57BB belongs to us.
On average, we lose 43BB [100-57=43]
(100-3/x)*10BB – (3/x)*43 = 0
x=15.9%

3) AQo (24.5% equity against QQ+/AK)
In a 200BB pot, 49BB belongs to us.
On average, we lose 51BB [100-49=51]
(100-3/x)*10BB – (3/x)*51 = 0
x=18.1%

Seems that I have been widening my 4bet range too unnecessarily in NL200 against regs with <10% 3bet%. I should cut down on this and stop spewing off my chips.


Fri 25 Dec (Christmas)

December 25, 2009

I need to fix my leaks badly. Earned my way to 17k then lost it all. Today I lost $1200 because I kept getting owned by two annoying regs who 3bet me all day long.

I think I was very exploitable in several aspects:
1) Over 3betting from blinds – This left me out of position damn often. “huntt” kept on flatting my 3bet and play back against me post flop. I was also forced to checkfold many times when the flop came out low and coordinated
2) Over 4betting – I also exploit others with a very loose 5bet shove (KQ etc) and I’m sure players like huntt are doing the same to me. Need to fold more
3) Tighten up, better seat selection – I remembered when some faggot kept on giving me trouble, I sat behind him and 3bet the fuck out of him and he was sorry he ever messed with me. 4bet bluffing is way tougher and more expensive than flatting 3bets and playing back postflop.
4) Perhaps fix exploitable bet sizing and timing – I like to instantcall/raise with monsters and people always notice this. I don’t like to time down because Ipoker software sucks and Im afraid I fold if I ignore it for too long.
5) Try to reduce exploitable lines – I play very predictably which is why I am very far from Game Theory Optimal – my playstyle extracts the max value from a fish but gets seen through by a regular easily. I need to start playing more balanced to stop this.

MIXED GAMES AND PLO

After ORD in 3 weeks, I’m going to dedicate 1 or 2 days to the study of PLO (mainly but I really hate the variance) and PLO8/Stud8 (prefer this cause of low variance but there are too few games).


20 Dec 2009, One Year Anniversary

December 20, 2009

It has been one year since I decided to play seriously. My aim was to make $20 000 but I failed to do so. I have $15000 at the moment, so if I convert it to USD, its more than $20 000 SGD.

Within a short span of 3 weeks, I made about $5000. I am probably running very hot at the moment, won a lot of crucial big NL400 pots though I shouldn’t be taking shots at NL400 yet until I have 25 to 30 000$.

I’m still multi-tabling a fair amount. I’m doing the 24 table FR at NL200 Poketsras again. Don’t really like to play fewer tables for fullring. As for 6 max, I think 6-8 tables is my optimum. When I want to improve on my game even more, I will cut down strictly to 6.

The games at Pokerstars suck for 6max – It’s all about the regulars hunting down the 10% of fishes. Ipoker is way easier, at least 30% of the players at NL200 are horrible so theres usually a fish at every table if you table select a little.

Maybe Fulltilt is easier, it’s sad that I have SuperNova at the shitty site with bad games.

Now I set a new aim for myself – make $100 000 before I start school. Sounds quite impossible, but I think 50 000 is probably within my reach so I want to set a harder goal.

After I ORD in Jan, I’m going to watch a lot of videos, maybe sign up at Bluefire and learn some shit from Phil Galfond. Then maybe I’ll pick up Stud or some other variation, don’t really like PLO as its a stupid high variance game.