Widening 4-bet ranges with AQ and mid pocket pairs

December 28, 2009

Assume 100BB stacks, 3betsize is to 10BB and we do not count the dead money we put in for initial raise.

Let x be optimal 3bet% for 4betting wider

Opponent will stack off with JJ+/AK (top 3%)

1) 55-TT (33% equity against JJ+/AK)
In a 200BB pot, 67BB belongs to us.
On average, we lose 33BB [100-67=33]
(100-3/x)*10BB – (3/x)*33BB = 0
x=12.9%

2) AQs or 44 (32% equity against JJ+/AK)
In a 200BB pot, 64BB belongs to us.
On average, we lose 36BB [100-64=36]
(100-3/x)*10BB – (3/x)*36BB = 0
x=13.8%

3) AQo (28% equity against JJ+/AK)
In a 200BB pot, 56BB belongs to us.
On average, we lose 44BB [100-56=44]
(100-3/x)*10BB – (3/x)*44BB = 0
x=15.2%

Opponent will stack off with QQ+/AK (top 2.5%)

1) 55-TT (36% equity against QQ+/AK)
In a 200BB pot, 72BB belongs to us.
On average, we lose 28BB [100-72=28]
(100-3/x)*10BB – (3/x)*28 = 0
x=11.4%

2) AQs (28.5% equity against QQ+/AK)
In a 200BB pot, 57BB belongs to us.
On average, we lose 43BB [100-57=43]
(100-3/x)*10BB – (3/x)*43 = 0
x=15.9%

3) AQo (24.5% equity against QQ+/AK)
In a 200BB pot, 49BB belongs to us.
On average, we lose 51BB [100-49=51]
(100-3/x)*10BB – (3/x)*51 = 0
x=18.1%

Seems that I have been widening my 4bet range too unnecessarily in NL200 against regs with <10% 3bet%. I should cut down on this and stop spewing off my chips.


Fri 25 Dec (Christmas)

December 25, 2009

I need to fix my leaks badly. Earned my way to 17k then lost it all. Today I lost $1200 because I kept getting owned by two annoying regs who 3bet me all day long.

I think I was very exploitable in several aspects:
1) Over 3betting from blinds – This left me out of position damn often. “huntt” kept on flatting my 3bet and play back against me post flop. I was also forced to checkfold many times when the flop came out low and coordinated
2) Over 4betting – I also exploit others with a very loose 5bet shove (KQ etc) and I’m sure players like huntt are doing the same to me. Need to fold more
3) Tighten up, better seat selection – I remembered when some faggot kept on giving me trouble, I sat behind him and 3bet the fuck out of him and he was sorry he ever messed with me. 4bet bluffing is way tougher and more expensive than flatting 3bets and playing back postflop.
4) Perhaps fix exploitable bet sizing and timing – I like to instantcall/raise with monsters and people always notice this. I don’t like to time down because Ipoker software sucks and Im afraid I fold if I ignore it for too long.
5) Try to reduce exploitable lines – I play very predictably which is why I am very far from Game Theory Optimal – my playstyle extracts the max value from a fish but gets seen through by a regular easily. I need to start playing more balanced to stop this.

MIXED GAMES AND PLO

After ORD in 3 weeks, I’m going to dedicate 1 or 2 days to the study of PLO (mainly but I really hate the variance) and PLO8/Stud8 (prefer this cause of low variance but there are too few games).


20 Dec 2009, One Year Anniversary

December 20, 2009

It has been one year since I decided to play seriously. My aim was to make $20 000 but I failed to do so. I have $15000 at the moment, so if I convert it to USD, its more than $20 000 SGD.

Within a short span of 3 weeks, I made about $5000. I am probably running very hot at the moment, won a lot of crucial big NL400 pots though I shouldn’t be taking shots at NL400 yet until I have 25 to 30 000$.

I’m still multi-tabling a fair amount. I’m doing the 24 table FR at NL200 Poketsras again. Don’t really like to play fewer tables for fullring. As for 6 max, I think 6-8 tables is my optimum. When I want to improve on my game even more, I will cut down strictly to 6.

The games at Pokerstars suck for 6max – It’s all about the regulars hunting down the 10% of fishes. Ipoker is way easier, at least 30% of the players at NL200 are horrible so theres usually a fish at every table if you table select a little.

Maybe Fulltilt is easier, it’s sad that I have SuperNova at the shitty site with bad games.

Now I set a new aim for myself – make $100 000 before I start school. Sounds quite impossible, but I think 50 000 is probably within my reach so I want to set a harder goal.

After I ORD in Jan, I’m going to watch a lot of videos, maybe sign up at Bluefire and learn some shit from Phil Galfond. Then maybe I’ll pick up Stud or some other variation, don’t really like PLO as its a stupid high variance game.


Friday 27 Nov, $10000 milestone + highest win

November 27, 2009

I finally crossed the 10000$ barrier today after 2 days of $1000 losses at Pokerstars and Betfriends on Tue and Thur respectively.

Played for almost 3 hours at Stars and won $1600, (NL200 4-6 table)
Played for 2.5 hours at betfriends and won $900 (NL100/200 4-6 table)
Played for 1 hour coaching my mother and won $138 (NL50 2-3 table)

I still have some bonus money from Asiapokeracademy and Pokerstrategy


$5000 milestone

October 3, 2009

Finally time I hit my 5k mark. As of now, I have $2200 in Pokerstars, $2750 in Fulltilt, $330 in my ewallet (I deposited $300 last time so this doesn’t count) and maybe almost $100 in my Betfriends account. I still have $260 left of my first deposit bonus, 40 000 FPP points (50k can buy me $800), and some more bonus from betfriends when I transfer my money there.

I spent this entire week grinding fullring. It’s really easy, but I was running very hot as well. I made $800 within 5 days (12 hours) thanks to various setups or suckouts.

Number of wins/lossses:
Set over set: 2/1
Fullhouse over fullhouse: 1/1

There was also this hand where I picked up 22. Two other nubs called with A3. The flop came 245 and all 3 of us went all in. Note that none of us were making a mistake. The two guys with A3 probably had the nuts (36 is so unlikely) so allin is the right play. As for myself, even if I could see my cards, I am only investing 33% of the pot. I have a 36% chance of catching a fullhouse or 4-of-a-kind, so it was the best play. Besides, they could have been overplaying twopair but when I saw both of them shoving, I was afraid that it was set over set (their stats showed that they were noobs so I still shoved anyway). The turn and river was 5 and 6, giving me the fullhouse for a $300 pot.

Fullringstats


Sat 26 Sep (SuperNova)

September 26, 2009

Today I reached SuperNova status (100 000 VPP) at Pokerstars after about 250 000 hands played and about 700 hours invested in poker. I’m still poor like shit but I’m sure things are going to change soon. After all sorts of bullshit downswings, I’m back with about $4200 bankroll (600 at Fulltilt, 3500 at Stars) and about $1000 bonus pending.

The past 2 months didn’t go too well but I watched many many Deucescracked videos. JX also got his cardrunners membership so I watch many videos at work as well when no one is watching. Earlier in September I played about 10 hours at LuckyAce Poker and got myself a free Holdem Manager licence: it completely owns Pokertracker I think but the HUD looks uglier and I don’t know how to configure it (but the popup stats is imba)

I was surfing google for random free bankroll sites. After sieving through all the shit sites like bankrollmob which doesn’t provide free money for Singapore, I found Asiapokeracademy, something similar to pokerstrategy. They give less money than pokerstrategy ($30) and you can only play at Betfriends (Ipoker) but it’s still fine with me. I had a coaching session with their founder/headcoach Dr Eldo today (not really coaching session but we talked about my game and he gave me some advice on how fullring had more value). I tried playing 18 tables of fullring for about 1.5 hours after that and made 180$, very very easy. It’s full of fishy shit and I just abuse them with my light3betting and LAG style, I think I was playing at 18/16, and everyone else is playing like 12/10 or 10/9. I had 50/40 at one of the tables after 20 hands when I started picking up a few hands and abusing some weak tight guy.

I’m going to play more Fullring on weekends. 20 minutes ago before writing this, I played two tables of headsup and earned 75$. Headsup isn’t really that difficult I think, especially when you wait at your own table with a huge stack. All the regulars will avoid you and you have an easy time. Now I’m going to display my Supernova status when I play headsup to deter them even more.

supernova

holdemmanager1

 Some stats for 2nd half of Sep 2009, Lost $500 on one day after screwing around with Omaha8 and Headsup

graph

Mid to End Sep 2009


19-21 July

July 21, 2009

19 July: The games were exceptionally fishy on Sunday night but for some reason I kept loosing.

There was this massive spewer who was donating his cash to the entire table. I stacked him once with a monster.
1) I picked up AA and 3-betted him. The flop was like Q74hh and I bet. He reraise all in and I called. He has QXhh (queen pair and flush draw) which means he has about 49% equity against me and of course he hits.
2) I picked up KK and 3-betted his minraise once again. Both of us were about 160 BB deep. Flop comes 723r. Seems innocent enough. I bet and he shoves on me so I insta-call, expecting a whole lot of worse shit. He has 73o and hits the fullhouse.
3) He raises with 78o, I 3-bet with AKo and he shoves all-in. I saw him shoving 2 other hands preflop with trash and spew all his cash to others so I called. I’m a 62% favourite but he hits his 7 and i lose my money.

There were a whole lot of other hands in which I had at least 50% equity but I lost many of them.

20 July: Played for about 2-3 hours before going out. Broke even, then I came home at night and lost $100. I got pissed off at a possible squeezer (but his 3bet stats were only 8 i think, not that high) and I 4betshoved with A8o. He called with AA and I was almost drawing dead. Could have saved $48 if I just kept my cool. I also squeezed a lot of fishes and got called. Probably the fastest way to burn ur money away.

21 July: Got a DeucesCracked Membership for $30/month. The videos are pretty good and they have a super huge archive so I was spamming downloads into my computer and watching “Real Life Grinder No Limit Holdem”. I think it is quite a good series; learnt a bit on 3 barrelling pocket pairs on paired rainbow flops, forcing people out of the turn in 3bet pots (since they would have shoved flop with monsters), varying bet-sizes against loose unaware fish.

Hand of the Day:

Poker Stars $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold’em – 6 players – [url=http://www.thehandconverter.com/hands/193623]View hand 193623[/url]
The Official [url=http://www.deucescracked.com/?referrer=converter_dc]DeucesCracked.com[/url] Hand History [url=http://www.thehandconverter.com]Converter[/url]

Andi252875 (CO): $29.60
SlyJeff (BTN): $82.10
Ecki54 (SB): $49.50
[b]Hero (BB): $63.90[/b]
[b]victas (UTG): $76.45[/b]
McPom (MP): $50.00

[b]Pre Flop:[/b] ($0.75) Hero is BB with 3 :diamond: 2 :diamond:
victas calls $0.50, [i]4 folds[/i], Hero checks

[b]Flop:[/b] ($1.25) 4 :diamond: 6 :diamond: 5 :diamond: [color=#336633](2 players)[/color]
[color=red]Hero bets $1[/color], victas calls $1

[b]Turn:[/b] ($3.25) 6 :spade: [color=#336633](2 players)[/color]
[color=red]Hero bets $3[/color], victas calls $3

[b]River:[/b] ($9.25) 4 :heart: [color=#336633](2 players)[/color]
[color=red]Hero bets $59.40 all in[/color], victas calls $59.40

[b]Final Pot:[/b] $128.05
Hero shows 3 :diamond: 2 :diamond: (a straight flush, Deuce to Six)
victas mucks 6 :club: Q :club:
Hero wins $125.05
(Rake: $3.00)

 

I flopped the nuts, potted the flop and turn. I screamed in chat “I HAVE A STRAIGHT FLUSH!” This guy is a huge fish, so I was praying hard that he would either call me down to see if I was lying, or somehow had a hand himself. Fucking funny to see this guy get owned, what bad luck to hit his fullhouse

I dont think I made any mistakes today, besides a hand in which I rivered trips with 87s (547Q7). The guy called me preflop, then called flop and turn. Then he shoved the river after I 3rd barreled. It looked like a 7 to me and perhaps I would beat a few weaker 7s such as 67, 57, or he could be doing that with air (though unlikely). He turned over QQ, which was fucking stupid and completely unexpected (anyone would have 3betted QQ preflop, or at least raise the turn to get the money in after he hit his set)